A statistical analysis, as well as a good qualitative analysis, should be part of the betting decision on any market.
See how to do it using the Online Betting Academy statistics.
The following statistical analysis was performed on four matches to realize what to do when betting on the over / under 2.5 market.
Let's go through these matches one by one:
Chelsea – Wolves
It's a risky but worthwhile bet:
- 50% of Chelsea's home matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals, although the average is clearly higher when it comes to goals scored at home;
- 50% of Wolves' away matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
- Fair Odd for the under 2,5: clearly above 2, but under 2.5.
- Available offer for the under 2.5 market: odd of 3.10
Getafe – Sport. Gijón
This is a match that has everything to have more than 2.5 goals:
- 67% of Getafe's home matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
- 67% of Gijon's away matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
- Fair Odd for the over 2.5: odd of 1.8
- Offer available in the over 2.5 market: odd of 2.11
Liverpool – Blackburn
Great game to exemplify the over / under 2,5 market:
- 50% of Liverpool's home matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
- 50% of Blackburn's away matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
- Fair Odd for the over 2.5: odd below 2
- Offer available in the over 2.5 market: odd of 2.14
Stoke City – Man United
- 50% of Stoke City’s home matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
- 75% of Manchester United's away matches have finished with more than 2.5 goals;
- Fair Odd for the over 2.5: odd clearly below 2
- Offer available in the over 2.5 market: odd of 2.04
In this match there is also an available odd clearly above our fair odd. Therefore, the over 2,5 is a market that has everything to give us a profit. Let's bet?
Here are four matches that exemplify how we can use a good statistical analysis on the over / under 2.5 market.
However, we should not only rely on a good statistical analysis, it is also important to have qualitative information.
A qualitative analysis, which is personal and subjective, consists on interpreting the statistical data and match conditionings (relevant news, for example) in order to find out if there’s value in a bet. For this, it is necessary to have experience and intuition to be able to elaborate a correct qualitative analysis.
