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Do Luck and Misfortune exist in sports betting?

Do Luck and Misfortune exist in sports betting?

What if I tell you that all luck and all misfortune have already been predicted in each bet?

by Josué Ramos   |   comments 0
Monday, June 1 2020

Within mathematics, the “luck and misfortune" factors are seen as random events with results from chance. If it's good for you, you'd call it luck and if it's bad, you say it's bad luck. Lucky for one, unlucky for the other, isn't it? Do you think there is a God controlling your betting luck? Some invisible force that has nothing more useful to do in the universe, that is there having fun giving you reds?

What if I tell you that all luck and all misfortune have already been predicted in each bet? And if I tell you, that expulsion at the 86th minute of the second half, which caused a change in the game, had already been predicted? What if I go further and say that the whole ball on the post that cried and did not enter the goal, and every bizarre and absurd move that influenced the outcome of the game had already been predicted? Would you believe?

Two lines can be consulted when dealing with chance, one of them is the theory of probabilities and the other line is of dependent and independent events. However, the two lines contain the same idea after all.

Chance, the variables as I like to call it, or luck and bad luck, as most laymen tend to put it, are just variables already foreseen within what we call CHANCES, or better, ODDS, the odds of the game, the odds of the event.

Every projected probability already has the variables computed according to all relevant information about the event. During the live event, which is when all the absurd things will occur, the odds adjust according to the occurrences in the event, through monetary movements, and according to the playing time, always making the probabilities for each given result evident.
Many will question about that ball on the post that could have entered, or about that bizarre event that changed the outcome of the game in the final minutes, and will attest to the existence of luck in the game, however in long term the odds will be equivalent, never forget of this.

In other words, to make it easier to understand, if by chance there was a 4% chance of a team turn the game around at the final minutes and this, due to a bizarre factor, ends up happening, and John Doe bet and managed to extract profit from this result, in the long run it is very likely that John Doe trying to hit more high shots like these will compromise their bankroll management, as the odds will match the curve will charge every penny earned on that action by John Doe. We call this mathematical adjustment of the probabilities, or better, adjustment of the curve. It is impossible to beat mathematics, that is, to take worthless entries and ultimately want to be profitable.

Many do not understand why many bettors have ROI (return on investment) very close in terms of values, but I already make it clear that this fact occurs due to the percentage of average value that these bettors are able to extract from their bets, that is, the profit margin that they manage to extract in relation to the odds, the probabilities.

The point is that many can make a lot of profit over a long periods of time, but in the long run of years, this curve is likely to adjust and be very close to the normative numbers that other older bettors have, this is due to the fact of randomness, in this case luck and bad luck are completely purged by the curve in long term.

So believe me, within any probability (odds), all sorts of possible events that may influence the outcome of that event have already been computed and in the long run everything will be equivalent, that is, ballanced. Mathematics does not lie and does not forgive, believe me.